ASTR 430 ยท Lecture 11

Lecture 11: Statistical Ethics and Inference

Research Methods in Astronomy

Statistical ethics demands disclosure of search degrees of freedom and the full analysis path.

Objectives and route

Terms for This Lecture

Multiple comparisons

Definition: The inflation of false-positive risk when many hypotheses or analysis choices are tested.

Why it matters here: In Statistical Ethics and Inference, Multiple comparisons is needed to reason about pre-registration, multiplicity, train-test separation, and effect sizes rather than merely label the phenomenon.

Relationship: It is interpreted alongside P-hacking and the lecture relation below; identify which quantities are observed, calibrated, or model-derived.

Limitation or common confusion: Archive choice is part of scientific design.

\(p_adjusted=min(1,m p)\)

Why the method matters

Statistical ethics demands disclosure of search degrees of freedom and the full analysis path.

Keep observation, calibration, transformation, model, and claim separate so each can be challenged.

archive products
pre-registration, multiplicity, train-test separation, and effect sizes. The geometry distinguishes inputs, transformations, and inferential limits.

Formal object

\(p_adjusted=min(1,m p)\)

Define fields, units, defaults, version identifiers, and the boundary between measured, adopted, and inferred quantities.

Read the evidence

Identify which part is input, transformation, and claim. A caption should let a reader reproduce the path without asking the author what was omitted.

archive products
pre-registration, multiplicity, train-test separation, and effect sizes. The geometry distinguishes inputs, transformations, and inferential limits.

Worked audit

MAST serves mission products, Gaia astrometric catalogs, SDSS imaging/spectroscopy, and Exoplanet Archive curated tables; product scope is the discriminant.

Archive choice is part of scientific design.

Estimate direction first, record units or decision criteria, then test one assumption. This check is generated from shared ASTR430 values.

Failure modes

Active reasoning

Prompt: If 20 independent tests use alpha=0.05, compute the chance of at least one false positive.

What would you record so a skeptical collaborator could rerun or challenge the conclusion?

Paired workshop

The workshop turns this method into a reproducible artifact: a query manifest, screening log, uncertainty table, figure critique, time budget, or proposal review. The deliverable includes result and provenance.

Takeaways

Exact source anchors

NASA Open Science Overview; Astropy Statistics documentation; ASA ethical guidance.

Archive, software, and ethics citations with verification status are in reference-log.md.