Concordance
Definition: Consistency of multiple probes within a shared model and correctly represented covariance.
Why it matters here: It is required to answer When do two experiments disagree? and to distinguish direct observation from cosmological inference.
Relationships: Read it with Tension, the model \(Delta theta = theta_A - theta_B; significance requires Cov(theta_A,theta_B)\), and the evidence statement All comparison points are literature summaries and are tagged to their exact analysis assumptions in the dataset table and reference log.
Boundary or common confusion: Do not calculate a 'sigma tension' by adding published errors in quadrature unless independence and comparable posterior shapes are defensible.
Tension
Definition: A quantified discrepancy between inferences that accounts for uncertainty, dependence, and parameterization.
Why it matters here: It is required to answer When do two experiments disagree? and to distinguish direct observation from cosmological inference.
Relationships: Read it with Shared covariance, the model \(Delta theta = theta_A - theta_B; significance requires Cov(theta_A,theta_B)\), and the evidence statement All comparison points are literature summaries and are tagged to their exact analysis assumptions in the dataset table and reference log.
Boundary or common confusion: Do not calculate a 'sigma tension' by adding published errors in quadrature unless independence and comparable posterior shapes are defensible.
Shared covariance
Definition: Statistical dependence between probe estimates caused by common data, calibration, volume, or modeling.
Why it matters here: It is required to answer When do two experiments disagree? and to distinguish direct observation from cosmological inference.
Relationships: Read it with Posterior predictive check, the model \(Delta theta = theta_A - theta_B; significance requires Cov(theta_A,theta_B)\), and the evidence statement All comparison points are literature summaries and are tagged to their exact analysis assumptions in the dataset table and reference log.
Boundary or common confusion: Do not calculate a 'sigma tension' by adding published errors in quadrature unless independence and comparable posterior shapes are defensible.
Posterior predictive check
Definition: A comparison between observed diagnostics and data replicated from the fitted model.
Why it matters here: It is required to answer When do two experiments disagree? and to distinguish direct observation from cosmological inference.
Relationships: Read it with Look-elsewhere effect, the model \(Delta theta = theta_A - theta_B; significance requires Cov(theta_A,theta_B)\), and the evidence statement All comparison points are literature summaries and are tagged to their exact analysis assumptions in the dataset table and reference log.
Boundary or common confusion: Do not calculate a 'sigma tension' by adding published errors in quadrature unless independence and comparable posterior shapes are defensible.
Look-elsewhere effect
Definition: Inflation of apparent significance when many discrepancies or subsets are searched and only the largest is reported.
Why it matters here: It is required to answer When do two experiments disagree? and to distinguish direct observation from cosmological inference.
Relationships: Read it with Concordance, the model \(Delta theta = theta_A - theta_B; significance requires Cov(theta_A,theta_B)\), and the evidence statement All comparison points are literature summaries and are tagged to their exact analysis assumptions in the dataset table and reference log.
Boundary or common confusion: Do not calculate a 'sigma tension' by adding published errors in quadrature unless independence and comparable posterior shapes are defensible.